Anti-Covid vaccines have not caused an increase in mortality in France since their introduction in the early 2020s, a study published Thursday shows, contradicting theories widespread in vaccine-skeptic circles.
"Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against Covid-19 do not increase the risk of all-cause mortality in the long term," summarizes the Epi-Phare group, a French organization comprising the Medicines Safety Agency (ANSM) and the Health Insurance, whose researchers published this study in the journal JAMA Network Open.
They examined data on nearly 30 million French people between 2021 and 2025, representing the entire 18-59 age group. A majority – nearly 23 million – received a vaccine from mid-2021 onwards, when a massive vaccination campaign against the disease that caused a major pandemic in the early 2020s was launched.
The remaining almost six million have not been vaccinated, despite restrictive measures such as the health pass.
Most of these vaccines were messenger RNA vaccines, either from Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech, which quickly became the spearhead of anti-Covid vaccination in France.
Within the vaccinated group, 0.41 third-times-count (TP3T) individuals died within four years of receiving their first vaccine. Among the unvaccinated group, the figure was 0.61 TP3T. After statistical analysis, the study concluded that vaccinated individuals had "a reduced risk of death from any cause of death of 251 TP3T."
"We can say with a high degree of confidence that there is no increase in the risk of mortality after a Covid vaccine," concluded researcher Mahmoud Zureik, who supervised the work, to AFP.
The efficacy and safety of Covid-19 vaccines have already been documented by numerous studies. The main serious side effects, which are rare, are cardiovascular problems—myocarditis, pericarditis—which do not call into question the benefits of vaccination in most age groups. However, the Moderna vaccine has been discouraged in France for young adults.
But vaccine skeptics have frequently relayed the false idea that vaccines, particularly mRNA vaccines, have silently killed many people, without this appearing clearly in official data, which focus on mortality directly linked to Covid with a follow-up of only a few months after vaccination.
"We were well aware of the short-term profile of Covid vaccines in terms of benefits and risks; however, their long-term benefit had never been studied," explains Mr. Zureik.
While researchers are certain that vaccines have not caused an increase in mortality, they caution that their study alone does not allow them to conclude that they have caused a decrease in the overall death rate.
The gap between the two groups can indeed be explained by the positive effects of the vaccine in the short or long term, but also by the difference in profiles between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals: age, social background…
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