A large-scale "study" that would reveal the "causes" of an "autism epidemic" in just a few months: the statement by US Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. has left many scientists more than perplexed, and they refute the very existence of an "epidemic."
RFK Jr. announced Thursday that he is launching a research project involving "hundreds of scientists from around the world" that will reveal "by September" the causes of what he calls an autism "epidemic." He then promises to "eliminate" them—a barely concealed allusion to vaccines, which he wrongly blames.
"Anyone who claims to solve such a complex problem in five months is a fraud," Neil Stone, an infectious disease specialist at University College Hospitals in London, said on X.
For Hugo Peyre, a child psychiatrist at the Montpellier University Hospital, the Minister of Health's comments demonstrate "a certain ignorance of the scientific literature."
Indeed, autism, a complex and very broad spectrum condition, is widely studied and doctors have long wondered about its origins.
Although there is no single identified cause to date, several environmental factors have been put forward, such as neuroinflammation or taking certain medications such as the anti-epileptic Depakine during pregnancy, as well as genetic predispositions.
"Nearly 200 genes have been associated with autism, and approximately 80% of autism cases can be linked to genetic mutations," explains Thomas Bourgeron, head of the Human Genetics and Cognitive Functions Unit at the Pasteur Institute.
For his part, US President Donald Trump has put forward suggestions that run counter to scientific knowledge: "It's possible that we need to stop taking something, or eating something, or maybe it's a vaccine," he said.
For the American NGO Autistic Self Advocacy Network, RFK Jr.'s announcement is a "clear signal" that the Department of Health "intends to produce rigged and fraudulent research that supports Kennedy's and Trump's pre-existing beliefs about the link between autism and vaccines," it said in a statement.
– Better detection –
The president and his health minister have in fact repeatedly promoted a theory – a false one – establishing a link between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism.
This speculation stems from a study rigged by its author Andrew Wakefield, which was depublished and repeatedly refuted by subsequent work.
This does not prevent disinformation on this subject from flooding social networks, as noted by AFP verification teams, and even from being relayed by political leaders.
Among them was Robert Kennedy Jr., who, despite the scientific consensus, ordered a new investigation into the matter in March by the CDC, the country's main health agency.
One of the key arguments used by the proponents of this unfounded theory is that cases are increasing.
According to CDC figures, the prevalence has indeed fallen from 1 in 150 for children born in 1992 to 1 in 36 for those born in 2012.
But for specialists, there is no question of talking about an "epidemic": "There is an important distinction to be made between the real prevalence, which corresponds to the health status of the population and which seems stable, and the measured prevalence," explains Bruno Peyre.
So, even if the measured prevalence "has increased dramatically since the early 2000s," this does not mean "that children are sicker," he adds.
Indeed, this increase is mainly explained by the broadening of diagnostic criteria for autism and by better knowledge among professionals.
"Diagnostic criteria have changed drastically in recent decades, with greater consideration given to people without intellectual disabilities and better detection in girls," explains Thomas Bourgeron.
"Healthcare professionals and families are also much more attentive to autism spectrum disorders," adds Hugo Peyre.
Welcoming the need to continue research on the subject – particularly on understanding prenatal and perinatal risk factors – the child psychiatrist regrets that "the factors highlighted by Robert Kennedy Jr have already been dismissed by the scientific community with very high-quality studies."
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