Bill Gates warns of a "tragic" rebound in infant mortality due to a decrease in aid.

December 7, 2025

A “tragedy”: Billionaire and philanthropist Bill Gates warns AFP of a rebound in infant mortality worldwide, the first increase in this figure since the beginning of the century, due to the general decline in international aid by Western countries.

Microsoft co-founder, speaking via video conference from Seattle (USA), commented on the release of a Gates Foundation report estimating that 4.8 million children worldwide will have died before the age of five by 2025, an increase of 200,000 and the first rebound in this figure in the 21st century.

This projection constitutes a "tragedy" for Mr. Gates, who notes a probably inevitable setback, whereas the number of infant deaths had been steadily declining since the approximately 10 million recorded annually at the turn of the millennium.

The cause is clear to the billionaire and the authors of the report: like other areas of global health, efforts to combat infant mortality are hampered by the general trend of Western countries reducing their financial aid abroad.

The most emblematic measures have been taken by the United States since Donald Trump's return to the presidency. Mr. Gates is particularly critical of the actions of another billionaire, Elon Musk, who for several months headed a "Department of Government Efficiency." While this department has since been dissolved, Musk implemented drastic cuts to American aid, notably to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

– Macron and Trump questioned –

This policy “has undoubtedly caused many deaths,” denounces Mr. Gates, who says he is now “talking” with Mr. Trump to limit the damage. “I encourage him to reinstate the aid, or at least reduce it only slightly,” he explains. “I’m not sure I’ll succeed.”

Mr. Gates also mentions the withdrawal of international funding for Gavi, an international organization bringing together public and private actors to accelerate vaccination efforts worldwide.

This decision comes amid a backdrop of repeated, unfounded statements by US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his anti-vaccine stance, including in a message to Gavi. Mr. Gates denounces Mr. Kennedy's "widely discredited and fallacious" position that "childhood vaccination should not be used."

"Even though the Gates Foundation works with every administration — and we find common ground with Secretary Kennedy regarding vaccines — we essentially have opposing views on the role that vaccines have played in the world," he observes.

But, beyond the United States, the billionaire stressed that the "disproportionate" decrease in international aid was a general trend among Western countries: France, Germany, the United Kingdom…

France, for example, has not yet been able to confirm its funding to the Global Fund against Infectious Diseases, a situation linked to the difficulty of adopting a budget for 2026 in a context of political instability.

"I have spoken" with the French government "and president" and others "to tell them that this is of paramount importance," reports Mr. Gates, while admitting a "very difficult budgetary situation."

The warning issued by Mr. Gates and his foundation – created in 2000 with his wife Melinda, from whom he is now divorced – aligns with other studies. In November, the Institute for Global Health in Barcelona estimated that more than 22 million people could die as a result of US and European spending cuts by 2030.

Despite these concerns, the billionaire notes positive developments against infant mortality, such as the emergence of immunizing treatments against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) which causes bronchiolitis.

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