Published on March 4, 2025 in the journal The LancetThis study, which includes data from 204 countries and territories worldwide, is based on figures from the Global Burden of Disease, a vast program funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, aimed at compiling health data from most countries.
The authors estimate that government inaction in the face of the growing obesity and overweight crisis over the past 30 years has led to an alarming explosion in the number of people affected. Between 1990 and 2021, this number nearly tripled among adults over 25, from 731 million to 2.11 billion, and more than doubled among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24, from 198 million to 493 million.
“One of the greatest health challenges of the 21st century”
"Without urgent policy reform and concrete actions, 60% of adults, or 3.8 billion people, and nearly a third (31%) of children and adolescents, or 746 million, are expected to be overweight or obese by 2050." according to the study.
To cope with "one of the greatest health challenges of the 21st century", it is appropriate to adopt five-year action plans (2025-2030) with flagship measures: "regulate the advertising of ultra-processed foods, integrate sports infrastructure and playgrounds into schools, encourage breastfeeding and balanced diets from pregnancy and develop nutrition policies adapted to each country", say its authors.
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“Serious health, economic and social consequences”
"By 2050, one in three young people suffering from obesity, or 130 million, will live in two regions: North Africa and the Middle East, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean, with serious health, economic and social consequences," they note.
Youth obesity is expected to increase by 121% globally, with a total of 360 million obese children and adolescents by 2050. The first to be affected, with a sharp increase expected from 2022-2030 globally, are boys aged 5 to 14: in 2030, there are expected to be more obese (16.5%) than overweight (12.9%) young people in this category.
This obesity epidemic will add further pressure on already overburdened health systems, particularly in low-resource countries, as by 2050, nearly a quarter of obese adults worldwide are expected to be 65 years or older.
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More than half of overweight or obese adults live in just eight countries
“Obesity prevention must be at the forefront of policies in low- and middle-income countries.”, says Dr. Jessica Kerr of the Murdoch Institute for Children's Research in Australia, one of the study's lead co-authors. She calls for "a much stronger political commitment" in favor of “comprehensive strategies that improve people’s nutrition, physical activity and living environment”, judging the window of action to be short.
Overweight children and adolescents in much of Europe and South Asia require preventive strategies, while urgent intervention is needed for many adolescent girls on the verge of becoming obese in North America, Australia, Oceania, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
More than half of overweight or obese adults today live in just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the United States (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million), according to 2021 data.
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