The flu epidemic continues to intensify in France but remains "moderate" for the time being, according to a report published Wednesday by the public health agency, with the epidemic peak expected to be reached by early January, according to new models.
Last week, ending on December 21, "flu activity continued its progression in all regions of mainland France, all of which are experiencing an epidemic," summarized Public Health France (SpF) in a weekly report.
For several weeks, the seasonal flu epidemic has spread throughout mainland France. It is also affecting most of the overseas regions, with the exception of Réunion, but the latter, already hit by a first wave, also seems threatened by a resurgence.
After a particularly severe 2024/2025 season in terms of mortality – more than 17,000 deaths – it is too early to get an idea of the current epidemic, but for the moment it is giving rise to "moderate activity" in the city as well as in the hospital, according to Public Health France.
However, as a sign of some tension, doctors have been requisitioned by the prefecture in Bouches-du-Rhône to deal with winter epidemics, particularly the flu, during a period of leave for many healthcare workers.
And "it is likely that the use of influenza care will increase significantly this week in all regions of mainland France, with a strong impact to be anticipated in hospitals during the end-of-year holiday period," warned the Pasteur Institute in weekly modeling.
These update previous forecasts, published last week and constituting the first models of a flu epidemic in France, and remain largely in line with them.
The Institute thus estimates that the epidemic has a high chance of reaching its peak in the last week of 2025 (72.5% probability) and should, if not, do so in the first days of 2026 (22.5%).
Another major winter epidemic, bronchiolitis, appears to be reaching its peak.
For this disease, which mainly affects babies and is usually caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the indicators are starting "to decrease in the city, to levels close to those observed the previous season at the same time", explains SpF.
"A trend towards stabilization is observed for emergency room visits, while hospitalizations following visits are decreasing," the agency specifies.
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