The increase in sick leave has been accelerating since 2019, excluding the Covid effect

The upward trend in sick leave in the private sector and among civil service contract workers accelerated after 2019, "beyond the effects of the health crisis", according to a study by Drees (statistical services of social ministries) published on Friday.

During the decade 2010-2019, the number of days compensated increased by 2.3% per year on average for illness, the study recalls.

But between 2019 and 2023 and “excluding the Covid effect” (removing sick leave for this reason), the number of days compensated for sick leave increased by +3.9% on average per year, she notes.

Expenditure (the amount of daily allowances paid for sick leave) has increased by 6.31% per year on average since 2019, reaching 10.2 billion euros, she adds.

According to the study, the direct effect of economic factors (rising wages) and demographic factors (particularly the ageing of the population) explains around 60% of the increase in daily allowance expenditure over the recent period.

But the authors also observe an "increase in claims", resulting in an increase in the average length of sick leave and the percentage of people receiving compensation at a given age.

“The proportion of employees having at least one compensated leave during the year increased from 25% in 2010 to 26% in 2019 and 28% in 2023,” she notes.

Although it is "difficult" to explain the causes of this increased accident rate, it "may come from a deterioration in working conditions", in particular "exposure to certain physical hardships" and "psychosocial constraints".

But the increase could also "result in part from unjustified stops", analyses the Drees.

During the period 2010-2023, sick leave increased more among women. The authors list "several hypotheses" for the phenomenon: "differences in health status (pregnancies in the first place), working conditions, reactions to hardship, double workload (professional and domestic)" or "more preventive behaviors".

The Drees also notes a “very strong” acceleration in days compensated for work accidents and occupational diseases (AT-MP) since 2019.

These increased by 3.2% between 2019 and 2023 (compared to 2.1% between 2010 and 2019), while expenditure increased by 5.9% in amount over the same period, reaching 4.1 billion euros in 2023.