It is one of many scenarios that international trade experts have raised. John Alty was a senior adviser at Pagefield and a former head of trade in the UK.
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We all know what the new president said about trade and tariffs. I think my former colleagues [in UK government] Alty, a member of FoodNavigator, said: “We’re going to play out different scenarios.”
He predicts that the UK's exclusion from the EU could have both advantages and disadvantages.
On the one hand, we [the UK] "have an equal trade balance with the US," he says. But the EU is a huge exporter.
Last year alone, EU food and beverage exports to the US increased by 19 billion 300 million. In the first half of the year, exports to the US increased by 19 billion 300 million. The US spent €1.5 billion more on EU food and drink imports than the EU average.
What are the UK's food and drink exports to America?
U.S. food and beverage exports will reach $2 billion by 2021, and $2.4 billion by 2022.
He mentioned that the UK was not at the top of his wish list. [tariffs] Alty added: "This is a serious issue that needs to be taken seriously."
Smaller countries, such as the UK, could gain a competitive advantage by negotiating a better deal if global tariffs are introduced.
Alty believes that implementing an international tax of between 10 and 20 % would not be beneficial to the American economy.
"We will [the UK] try to find positive ways of working together, in things that we can exchange with America."
Other countries like Taiwan have recently purchased a lot of military equipment, which could help the Trump administration view the country in a positive light.
Biden, ahead of the 2024 election, had suspended UK-US trade talks that began under the previous Trump administration.
Trade war in food and beverages
Alty, however, says it could "be a bit difficult" because of the debate over US food standards and the UK's European standards. Chlorinated poultry from the US is frequently mentioned in discussions of food trade.
Alty believes Trump will want to see a similarity in food trade deals, meaning that British exports of agricultural products under free trade agreements would be matched by US imports. So beef would match beef and chicken would match chicken.
Then you will enter your [countries'] EU versus US relationship You can get closer to the EU by following EU guidelines. [trade] "The positions are diametrically opposed to those of the United States."
Food and drink have also been notoriously vilified Omitted from the European Commission's competitiveness strategy Earlier this year, the GDP gap between the United States and Canada was identified.
Alty points out that food and drink have been used in previous EU/US trade wars, such as the whisky war.
The US imposed tariffs on EU and other products, such as whiskey, during the Trump administration.
He warns: "We have imposed tariffs on bourbon imported from the United States so that it will arrive in this retaliation zone."
Alty says that while the “whiskey wars” have been settled under Biden, trade wars are often focused on products that will harm very specific areas of a nation, such as whisky produced in Scotland.
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