Over the past two years, olive oil has gone from affordable to astronomical. The price of olive oil has increased so much that the hashtag #oliveoil has become a regular trend on social media X, along with comments such as “I emptied my ISA to buy olive oil,” posted by @deathofbuckley.
The price increases have raised concerns among politicians who are worried about the increase in the number of fraudsters seeking to take advantage of the situation.
A European Commission spokesperson said that "the Commission has zero tolerance for fraud". The Commission organises annual workshops to promote collaboration between EU member states and ensure that controls are properly applied.
Retailers have also been accused of raising prices amid the chaos.
Carles Peris Ramos is the secretary general of La Unio, a farmers' association. He said that "the initial price of the products we sell has only increased by 3%." And yet consumers are paying 59% more in large supermarkets.
Many supermarkets are still in favour of this measure, however.
Ananda Roy is a consumer goods consultant at market research firm Circana. She told FoodNavigator that supermarkets are under enormous pressure to keep their shelves full and available despite shortages and high prices. There is no evidence of further price increases. Instead, the availability of blended oils and other alternatives has increased for consumers looking to reduce their impact on high grocery prices.
Despite other factors that can impact the price of olives and olive oil, it is supply that drives prices up.
Lisa Mullins is marketing manager at Filippo Berio Italian Olive Oil. She says the increase in production has occurred due to drought conditions.
Are there any signs that olive growing conditions will improve? Will the price of oil drop?
Can the price of olive oil be reduced?
“Absolutely,” says Jeremy Gibson, marketing director of the Princes Group, which owns Napolina. Official forecasts from the Junta de Andalusia and the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture indicate that we will have a bumper olive harvest by 2024/25.
This is a very positive development for the sector, and will give hope to consumers who are suffering. In fact, this forecast could lead to lower prices as supply increases.
In Andalusia alone, an estimated harvest of 5,347,700 tons will be harvested, which is equivalent to 1,021,000 tons of olive oil. This will be 76.6 % more than last year and 19.7 % more than the average of the previous five years, Gibson says.
You can read more about the olive oil crisis.
Olive trees have recovered from severe drought in the past two years, easing fears of a decline in the sector.
Gibson says the 2024/2025 olive oil harvest is expected to be higher due to rain and mild temperatures during the spring. This has created more favourable growing conditions. This ideal climate has improved the condition of olive trees decimated last year by heatwaves and dry weather across Europe.
While supply has recovered, olive oil prices may not fall as quickly as consumers would hope due to growing demand worldwide.
Circana's Roy says "demand from Asia and markets willing to pay premiums for exports remains high."
This increase in demand for olive oil in some markets is good news for manufacturers. However, this could be offset by a decline in Europe as consumers look for alternatives.
Kyle Holland is a senior market journalist at Expana, a market intelligence firm. He says there is concern about consumer trends. This concern is exacerbated by fears of an economic recession in the EU, which traditionally pushes consumers to seek out more affordable options, which could dampen demand for olive oil at current prices.
Circana forecasts a 31.2 % reduction in volume prices over the next 12 months.
This positive outlook depends on the success of the olive harvest, which is putting the sector under enormous pressure.
A spokesperson for food and drink retailer Maltby&Greek said: “Although olive trees are extremely hardy, they are very vulnerable to adverse weather conditions such as frost, hail and rain as well as insects.” Climate change is making the weather more unpredictable. This has had an impact in recent years. Heatwaves, droughts and the wildfires that can occur can all destroy an olive grove. It will then take years for it to recover and become productive again.
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